Forecasting Survey (The Watermelon Forecasters of Columbus)
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Dec 7, 2008
Butler Bag Forecasting Challenge Fall 2008
Poster (view here):
Forecasting Survey (The Watermelon Forecasters of Columbus):
click on the picture will open a new window for you to read the full size document or do the survey. Thank you for your time.
Forecasting Survey (The Watermelon Forecasters of Columbus)
click on the picture will open a new window for you to read the full size document or do the survey. Thank you for your time.
Big bag?
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/30/style/rbag.php?page=1
"The big bag is sexy and mysterious," ..... said by a designer....
"In an era where everything is getting smaller and more high tech, the big-bag lady looks like an urban gypsy, ready for anything, an extra pair of heels for a night out, ready for the gym or ready to catch a flight for the weekend."..................... he said
"I mainly like large bags because I have lots of things to put in them," she said. Among her essentials: a wallet, a diary, keys, a pen, a makeup bag, a book, a newspaper or magazine, a USB key, an iPod, a travel pass and "often a cardigan or a scarf."
"I think that it is more elegant to carry a large bag," she adds, rather than "a small bag crammed with stuff.".....
To explain the phenomenon, van Herpen looks to the flux of modern life - where we might change plans at a moment's notice by text message or spontaneously make last-minute trips. "'I think it's a self-protective reflex," she said. "You don't know where life might take you, and it's important to be ready for all eventualities."
Big bag gives women a identity and security. However, light weight is a must!
"The big bag is sexy and mysterious," ..... said by a designer....
"In an era where everything is getting smaller and more high tech, the big-bag lady looks like an urban gypsy, ready for anything, an extra pair of heels for a night out, ready for the gym or ready to catch a flight for the weekend."..................... he said
"I mainly like large bags because I have lots of things to put in them," she said. Among her essentials: a wallet, a diary, keys, a pen, a makeup bag, a book, a newspaper or magazine, a USB key, an iPod, a travel pass and "often a cardigan or a scarf."
"I think that it is more elegant to carry a large bag," she adds, rather than "a small bag crammed with stuff.".....
To explain the phenomenon, van Herpen looks to the flux of modern life - where we might change plans at a moment's notice by text message or spontaneously make last-minute trips. "'I think it's a self-protective reflex," she said. "You don't know where life might take you, and it's important to be ready for all eventualities."
Big bag gives women a identity and security. However, light weight is a must!
Traveling data
The lifestyle Market Analyst 2002 data:
These data supported our selection of target market. (read the template)
These data supported our selection of target market. (read the template)
These charts showed our target market's growth in 2010.
traveling will increase 2010, “While Orbitz has predicted that its bookings would remain weak through early 2009, it should benefit eventually as consumers take advantage of cheaper airfares and hotel rooms”
British retailers hope to entice American consumersLast year, British tourists looked for bargains in American stores as the dollar hit its weakest level against the pound in more than 25 years. Now, as the pound drops against the dollar, British retailers are hoping Britons stay put and Americans head overseas to do a little shopping. Stores are taking advantage of the exchange rate, using it as a marketing tool. The New York Times (11/28)
http://businesstravelbriefing.com/index.php/news/18-mice/37-businesstourismgains
Bold color will be hot, due to African influence!
Bold color will be hot, due to African influence!
http://rickseaney.com/2008/10/01/air-travel-trends-looking-ahead-to-2010/
Travel Light: bag fees are not going to disappear
Pack as though everything must fit in a 16 oz mug - carry-on, and save
The technology exists to improve baggage handling, but it’s still too expensive to implement .
Travel Light: bag fees are not going to disappear
Pack as though everything must fit in a 16 oz mug - carry-on, and save
The technology exists to improve baggage handling, but it’s still too expensive to implement .
http://travel.exportfocus.com/index.php/2008/10/28/liquid-restrictions-completely-removed-by-2010/:Liquid Restrictions Completely Removed by 2010 more convenient.
http://www.webpronews.com/topnews/2005/11/03/online-travel-industry-hits-billion-by: "U.S. Travel Forecast, 2005 to 2010," predicts $68 billion by the end of 2005 and $104 billion by 2010. "We expect the online travel market to continue its strong growth over the next five years and to represent 34% of all travel spending in 2010," said David Schatsky, Senior Vice President of Research at JupiterResearch. "The online share of total travel spending in the U.S. is quite high and its lower distribution costs are an important factor in holding down expenses for the travel industry," added Schatsky.
Market outlook of travel bag is positive in 2010 !
Apparel Sales Projection
http://docs.google.com/fileview?id=F.8d4bfa3a-6184-4a0a-878a-a6c0cd1d4987&hl=en:
World Apparel Market Retail Value Projection of 2010: 81,742,733.6
U.S.'s sales projection (2.01% of World's): 1663811.401
Compare to 2006, the growth is 51%
http://www.blogher.com/handbag-market-sales-declining-prices-slashing-some-turn-renting-it-hell-handbag:
The Handbag market: Sales Declining, Prices Slashing, Some Turn to Renting. Is it Hell In A Handbag?
........Coach Leather recently announced they were expecting a drop in sales this year--officially signaling the end to the handbags reign as the fashion industry's fastest growing product........
As the dollar continues its free fall and European designer clothes and accessories become more expensive for American shoppers,-it would seem that more of the Netflix models(rent a bag) would be popping up in lots of categories.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/09/bloomberg/bxlux.php?page=1:
Years of record growth for handbag sales could be over
World Apparel Market Retail Value Projection of 2010: 81,742,733.6
U.S.'s sales projection (2.01% of World's): 1663811.401
Compare to 2006, the growth is 51%
http://www.blogher.com/handbag-market-sales-declining-prices-slashing-some-turn-renting-it-hell-handbag:
The Handbag market: Sales Declining, Prices Slashing, Some Turn to Renting. Is it Hell In A Handbag?
........Coach Leather recently announced they were expecting a drop in sales this year--officially signaling the end to the handbags reign as the fashion industry's fastest growing product........
As the dollar continues its free fall and European designer clothes and accessories become more expensive for American shoppers,-it would seem that more of the Netflix models(rent a bag) would be popping up in lots of categories.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/09/bloomberg/bxlux.php?page=1:
Years of record growth for handbag sales could be over
Target Market Information
http://docs.google.com/fileview?id=F.b85c48d0-82ee-4f40-b560-62c13868e175&hl=en:
Working women power increased spending on clothing
Over the last 30 years, there has been an increasing number of women worldwide participating in the workforce. Women’saverage disposable incomes are rising and the gender gap is closing, albeit at different rates in different parts of the world.
As more women work, there has been an increasing demand for women’s business wear. There is a significant and growingpopulation of affluent women in the 35+ age category, as well.
With their rising incomes, women are enjoying greater spending power and they now have the ability to decide (or co-decide)how resources will be distributed within the family. This rising purchasing power and greater decision-making authority hasmade women, especially those in employment and aged 24-54, a large and powerful segment of the consumer market.
Outlook
Globally, the rise in the number of working women is expected to continue, particularly as better childcare facilities and homesupport systems become more available. It’s also anticipated that women will marry later in their lives and will start theirfamilies later than their parents did.
The consumer segment of older, affluent women will only gain strength in the future.
Higher levels of education for women will likely translate into higher salaries, which will increase their purchasing power evenmore. The traditional guilt that many women carried when spending on themselves is also expected to decline, leading togreater spending on women’s products.
Impact
The growth in disposable income as a result of more women in the workforce has already had a positive impact on allsubsectors of the women’s clothing market. Sales of women’s outerwear are expected to be strong over the forecast period.Manufacturers and retailers are expected to focus their efforts on meeting the needs of women aged 35+, who have largedisposable incomes but are increasingly unhappy with the fashions available to them. This segment of the population isattractive to clothing manufacturers and retailers because they do not have qualms about spending money on clothing and donot always opt for the least expensive items. These women also criticise designers and retailers for focusing too much on theyouth market, and they are clamoring for fashionable clothing that is built to fit more mature bodies.
The increasing demand for office wear, not only suits but also more “dressy” items such as shirts, jackets and dresses, will bea primary driver of growth in the women’s clothing sector in the future.
More money in the hands of women consumers is also good news for the children’s wear market, as older mothers look to buymore and better quality clothes for their children of all ages.
Buying Power:
Catalyst.com:
AGE: 30-44 is looking good!
30-44:have the highest % of middle incme(our target market).
http://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/706/middle-class-poll
http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=1164895&xs=r&SID=76729790-428310118-487961560&curr=USD&kw=&view=toc:
Women aged 45+ continue to increase in number, but the 25-34s represent the biggest change in the next five years .
Generation Y did not cut back spending even in Economy downturn: http://www.marketingvox.com/black-friday-vs-cyber-monday-shopping-differs-by-generation-042189/
THE INTERNET LIFE: IT'S ONLY JUST BEGUN
Byline: Dick Silverman
NEW YORK -- The Internet era has just begun. For the last two years, Internet activity has soared, but there's still a long way to go. By 2010, virtually all U.S. households will be hooked up to the Internet via computers, TV, telephones and other devices, according to research from PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Forrester Research is estimating that the number of households with Internet access will keep climbing during the next 10 years. And as Web sites and Internet technology evolve, online shopping will become a common activity, the PricewaterhouseCoopers report predicted. "Consumers will expect retailers to be available online, as well as on land," the consulting firm advised. "Retailers will be required to shoulder the financial burden of making sure that consumers can access them through a variety of selling platforms." Consumers will routinely use the Internet for more than just shopping. They'll use it to research products they might buy, obtain information from experts and to communicate with family and friends. The Internet is expected to become particularly popular with young people. When asked in a study by Yankelovich Monitor if computer technology will allow them to gain more control over their lives, 61 percent of Generation X'ers said yes, compared with 57 percent of baby boomers and 37 percent of older consumers. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers' research, 48 percent use it for shopping. As a result of the steadily growing Internet use, PricewaterhouseCoopers anticipates consumers will become more savvy shoppers, which means they will shop a wider selection of retail venues -- and become less loyal to specific stores. But the study warned that the technology's mass acceptance is hindered by economic obstacles. While 60 percent of households with incomes over $75,000 have Internet access, only 19 percent of households with incomes of $25,000 and $35,000 use the Internet. While consumers at an economic disadvantage may want to improve their prospects, they will have limited exposure to the new technology, the firm noted.
From wwd.com
Population projection:
from U.S census.
Our target market will grow big!
Demography:
Winners include seniors (ages 65 and older), blacks, native-born Hispanics and married adults. The income status of all of these groups improved from 1970 to 2006. Losers include young adults (ages 18 to 29), the never-married, foreign-born Hispanics and people with a high school diploma or less. All of these groups have seen their relative income positions decline.
from:http://www.pewinternet.org/reports.asp
U.S census data.
Summary:
It's very resonable to select our target market (30s' educated working women with >50K income per year)
Working women power increased spending on clothing
Over the last 30 years, there has been an increasing number of women worldwide participating in the workforce. Women’saverage disposable incomes are rising and the gender gap is closing, albeit at different rates in different parts of the world.
As more women work, there has been an increasing demand for women’s business wear. There is a significant and growingpopulation of affluent women in the 35+ age category, as well.
With their rising incomes, women are enjoying greater spending power and they now have the ability to decide (or co-decide)how resources will be distributed within the family. This rising purchasing power and greater decision-making authority hasmade women, especially those in employment and aged 24-54, a large and powerful segment of the consumer market.
Outlook
Globally, the rise in the number of working women is expected to continue, particularly as better childcare facilities and homesupport systems become more available. It’s also anticipated that women will marry later in their lives and will start theirfamilies later than their parents did.
The consumer segment of older, affluent women will only gain strength in the future.
Higher levels of education for women will likely translate into higher salaries, which will increase their purchasing power evenmore. The traditional guilt that many women carried when spending on themselves is also expected to decline, leading togreater spending on women’s products.
Impact
The growth in disposable income as a result of more women in the workforce has already had a positive impact on allsubsectors of the women’s clothing market. Sales of women’s outerwear are expected to be strong over the forecast period.Manufacturers and retailers are expected to focus their efforts on meeting the needs of women aged 35+, who have largedisposable incomes but are increasingly unhappy with the fashions available to them. This segment of the population isattractive to clothing manufacturers and retailers because they do not have qualms about spending money on clothing and donot always opt for the least expensive items. These women also criticise designers and retailers for focusing too much on theyouth market, and they are clamoring for fashionable clothing that is built to fit more mature bodies.
The increasing demand for office wear, not only suits but also more “dressy” items such as shirts, jackets and dresses, will bea primary driver of growth in the women’s clothing sector in the future.
More money in the hands of women consumers is also good news for the children’s wear market, as older mothers look to buymore and better quality clothes for their children of all ages.
Buying Power:
Catalyst.com:
- Education is a factor in income and spending – higher degrees lead to highermedian salaries as well as increased expenditures.College graduates’ average annual expenditures in 2006 were$63,864.
- Married couple families in which the husband and wife work had far highermedian incomes ($81,891)
Overall, online retail spending from August through October grew just 4% versus year ago, with spending declining by 3% among households making less than $50K/year.
· Households with income between $50K and $100K showed marginally positive spending growth (1%).
· Households making at least $100K increased their spending at a healthy rate of 14%.
AGE: 30-44 is looking good!
30-44:have the highest % of middle incme(our target market).
http://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/706/middle-class-poll
http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=1164895&xs=r&SID=76729790-428310118-487961560&curr=USD&kw=&view=toc:
Women aged 45+ continue to increase in number, but the 25-34s represent the biggest change in the next five years .
Generation Y did not cut back spending even in Economy downturn: http://www.marketingvox.com/black-friday-vs-cyber-monday-shopping-differs-by-generation-042189/
THE INTERNET LIFE: IT'S ONLY JUST BEGUN
Byline: Dick Silverman
NEW YORK -- The Internet era has just begun. For the last two years, Internet activity has soared, but there's still a long way to go. By 2010, virtually all U.S. households will be hooked up to the Internet via computers, TV, telephones and other devices, according to research from PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Forrester Research is estimating that the number of households with Internet access will keep climbing during the next 10 years. And as Web sites and Internet technology evolve, online shopping will become a common activity, the PricewaterhouseCoopers report predicted. "Consumers will expect retailers to be available online, as well as on land," the consulting firm advised. "Retailers will be required to shoulder the financial burden of making sure that consumers can access them through a variety of selling platforms." Consumers will routinely use the Internet for more than just shopping. They'll use it to research products they might buy, obtain information from experts and to communicate with family and friends. The Internet is expected to become particularly popular with young people. When asked in a study by Yankelovich Monitor if computer technology will allow them to gain more control over their lives, 61 percent of Generation X'ers said yes, compared with 57 percent of baby boomers and 37 percent of older consumers. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers' research, 48 percent use it for shopping. As a result of the steadily growing Internet use, PricewaterhouseCoopers anticipates consumers will become more savvy shoppers, which means they will shop a wider selection of retail venues -- and become less loyal to specific stores. But the study warned that the technology's mass acceptance is hindered by economic obstacles. While 60 percent of households with incomes over $75,000 have Internet access, only 19 percent of households with incomes of $25,000 and $35,000 use the Internet. While consumers at an economic disadvantage may want to improve their prospects, they will have limited exposure to the new technology, the firm noted.
From wwd.com
Population projection:
from U.S census.
Our target market will grow big!
Demography:
Winners include seniors (ages 65 and older), blacks, native-born Hispanics and married adults. The income status of all of these groups improved from 1970 to 2006. Losers include young adults (ages 18 to 29), the never-married, foreign-born Hispanics and people with a high school diploma or less. All of these groups have seen their relative income positions decline.
from:http://www.pewinternet.org/reports.asp
U.S census data.
Summary:
It's very resonable to select our target market (30s' educated working women with >50K income per year)
2010/2011 Color trend
http://www.sensationalcolor.com/trends/more-on-color-trends/color-trends-influences.html:
Digging down to basic emotions and needs is the basis for any assessment of how trends might translate into products, services, materials and, of course, colours. Currently the answers exist as polar opposites. Half of our dual personality society wants nothing more than to live a simpler, purer, authentic, and more natural life, while the other half craves a new take on luxury, living large and pushing the limits of both time and technology. ........
Hope counterbalances our unrest and aspirations give us hope and optimism about our future. In direct contrast to the neutral hues of uncertainty, bright chromatic vibrant colours crop up to remind us that colour and our futures should be active, full of life and fun....
The dynamics of apprehension or hopefulness, technology meeting nature and individualism versus the good of mankind are pushing design to new heights and by 2010/2011 the colour expressions and nuances will be nothing short of sensational.....
Digging down to basic emotions and needs is the basis for any assessment of how trends might translate into products, services, materials and, of course, colours. Currently the answers exist as polar opposites. Half of our dual personality society wants nothing more than to live a simpler, purer, authentic, and more natural life, while the other half craves a new take on luxury, living large and pushing the limits of both time and technology. ........
Hope counterbalances our unrest and aspirations give us hope and optimism about our future. In direct contrast to the neutral hues of uncertainty, bright chromatic vibrant colours crop up to remind us that colour and our futures should be active, full of life and fun....
The dynamics of apprehension or hopefulness, technology meeting nature and individualism versus the good of mankind are pushing design to new heights and by 2010/2011 the colour expressions and nuances will be nothing short of sensational.....
Nov 30, 2008
Furniture styles from 2008
colors: lots of reds, blues and black and white
colors: whites, browns and reds
plus accent colors, green blue yellow
styles: antique feeling wood pieces and metal bed frames with vintage flair
colors: beige and brown, little bit of red
styles: old style feel with wood frames and pieces
colors: beige, brown, black, blue and red
styles: mostly old feel but a couple of newer “zen” feeling pieces
Nov 27, 2008
2010 Econ
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2008/pr08236.htm:
IMF reported: "With such policies in place, it is reasonable to expect recovery to start in 2009 and gather strength in 2010," Mr. Blanchard said.
Around 2010, U.S econ should see its lowest point and start to do better.
http://www.euromonitor.com/Global_financial_crisis_2008_decline_in_short_term_but_recovery_by_2010: Global financial crisis 2008: decline in short-term but recovery by 2010
Author: Countries and Consumers
Date published: 16 Oct 2008
...Strong inflationary pressures continue to be led by oil and food prices, which remain comparatively high, and while prospects for the 2009-2012 period are uncertain, most projections conclude that the global economy should start to recover in 2010. ...
Siro:
this time line showed U.S.'s nine economic recessions. The recent one included: 1978 (recovery started by 1980) /1981 (recovery started by 1982) / 1984 (recovery started by 1991) / 2001 (recovery started by 2002).
Overall, 1980,1982, 1991 and 2002's complexion should be similar to projection of 2010.
When we conduct our forecast, mentioned years are the major references!
Our color choices are reasonable bright, according to 80/82/91/2002's color trends (from other blogs)!
IMF reported: "With such policies in place, it is reasonable to expect recovery to start in 2009 and gather strength in 2010," Mr. Blanchard said.
Around 2010, U.S econ should see its lowest point and start to do better.
http://www.euromonitor.com/Global_financial_crisis_2008_decline_in_short_term_but_recovery_by_2010: Global financial crisis 2008: decline in short-term but recovery by 2010
Author: Countries and Consumers
Date published: 16 Oct 2008
...Strong inflationary pressures continue to be led by oil and food prices, which remain comparatively high, and while prospects for the 2009-2012 period are uncertain, most projections conclude that the global economy should start to recover in 2010. ...
- ...In 2010, however, world growth is expected to rebound to 4.2% and then stabilise at 4.8% in 2011 and 2012;
- Inflation is expected to fall to 4.6% in 2009 and stabilise at around 3.5% per year in 2011-12. Inflation will, however, remain problematic in the short-term for both developed and developing economies, restraining consumer spending and wider economic growth;
- In the USA, the world's largest economy, real GDP growth is projected to be 2.0% in 2010 compared to 0.1% in 2009;
- Other factors are far more uncertain and make future projections difficult. These include commodity prices, especially those of oil, which is affected not only by supply and demand factors but also by speculation, and of food, where unpredictable climatic factors play a role;
Siro:
this time line showed U.S.'s nine economic recessions. The recent one included: 1978 (recovery started by 1980) /1981 (recovery started by 1982) / 1984 (recovery started by 1991) / 2001 (recovery started by 2002).
Overall, 1980,1982, 1991 and 2002's complexion should be similar to projection of 2010.
When we conduct our forecast, mentioned years are the major references!
Our color choices are reasonable bright, according to 80/82/91/2002's color trends (from other blogs)!
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